2024 “Certain” to Be Hottest Year on Record, Warns EU Climate Monitor

The Copernicus Climate Change Service has confirmed that 2024 is “effectively certain” to become the hottest year on record, surpassing previous high-temperature milestones. This year marks the first time global temperatures have exceeded a critical threshold, heightening concerns about the planet’s risk of dangerously overheating.

According to Copernicus, an unprecedented period of extreme heat from January to November pushed global temperatures to levels that ensure 2024 will eclipse 2023 as the hottest year. Scientists have linked this alarming temperature rise to human-driven climate change, as countries across the globe, both rich and poor, have suffered from climate-related disasters.

Julien Nicolas, a Copernicus scientist, warned that 2025 will begin with global temperatures at near-record levels, with this trend potentially continuing for months.

In another alarming development, 2024 will be the first calendar year to be 1.5°C hotter than pre-industrial levels, marking a grim milestone in the climate crisis. Provisional data from Copernicus reveals that this year is nearly 1.6°C warmer compared to the period between 1850 and 1900, which is used as the baseline for pre-industrial temperatures.

Scientists warn that the risks associated with climate change intensify with every fraction of a degree increase. Surpassing the 1.5°C threshold over a sustained period would significantly threaten ecosystems and human societies, leading to more extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and disruptions to biodiversity and agriculture.

Under the Paris Agreement, nations committed to limiting global warming to well below 2°C, with a more ambitious target of 1.5°C. Although Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, clarified that a single year exceeding the 1.5°C threshold does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement, she emphasized that it underscores the urgent need for ambitious climate action to avoid irreversible damage to the planet.
The world is far from being on track to meet climate goals. In October, the United Nations warned that current climate actions would lead to a catastrophic 3.1°C of warming, far exceeding the targets set in the Paris Agreement. Despite global pledges to phase out fossil fuels, emissions from coal, oil, and gas continue to rise. When fossil fuels are burned, they release greenhouse gases that trap heat in the atmosphere and oceans, contributing to rising global temperatures.

This warming disrupts climate patterns and the water cycle, exacerbating extreme weather events. Scientists say that the increase in global temperatures makes severe weather, such as flooding, storms, droughts, and wildfires, more frequent and intense. In 2024, these extreme weather events have already caused significant devastation: deadly flooding in Spain and Kenya, violent storms in the United States and the Philippines, and severe drought and wildfires across South America.

According to the Zurich-based insurance giant Swiss Re, the economic losses caused by these disasters in 2024 have reached a staggering $310 billion. This highlights the growing financial and humanitarian toll of climate change, underscoring the urgent need for stronger, more effective climate action.

Developing countries are particularly vulnerable and by 2035 will need $1.3 trillion a year in outside assistance for their energy transitions and to cope with climate change.